Egypt Is Building a New Nile

(theb1m.com)

117 points | by geox 3 days ago

13 comments

  • culi 3 hours ago
    It's practically a project of the Egyptian military who will mostly own the land. They will grow cash crops for export to gain a source of income.

    This will also drain the ancient and non-renewable Nubian Sandstone Aquifer. This is water that has been trapped for thousands of years. It is the world's largest fossil water system and is of immense scientific value.

    Not to mention the historic Nile Delta wetlands that will be lost from diversion and the massive increases in CO2 emissions necessary to pump the water at the elevation of the desert (which is higher than the Nile basin). Also the inevitable salination of soil means any economic benefits to this project are on a countdown.

    • Revanche1367 2 hours ago
      Any large government project in Egypt is a project of the Egyptian military. That’s the result of being under a military dictatorship with a fake civilian president.
      • culi 1 hour ago
        A state of affairs you can thank the US for.

        Besides Israel and, as of recently, Ukraine, Egypt is the biggest receiver of US military "assistance". Most military officials have attended elite U.S. military academies and the two forces work closely together.

        The 2011 revolution successfully outed Hosni Mubarak (another Egyptian dictator propped up by the US). Following the 2012 elections came the 2013 coup by Sisi. Except, the US was one of the few countries in the world that refused to label this a "coup". The Rabaa Massacre marked the definitive end to the Arab Spring in Egypt

        • dodongobongo 12 minutes ago
          I do not condone Sisi, but it is notable that his elected predecessor quickly gave himself unrestricted powers, and his tolerance of certain groups meant that some Egyptian minority groups lived in fear on a daily basis during that entire period. Honestly, it was also a cold and difficult time for religious moderates of all kinds. It is calmer these days for those people. I would say the Spring was cut short back then, before Sisi was even in the picture.

          Egypt’s low education and ingrained tolerance for corruption will take many decades to unwind, though I think it’s slowly coming. Bear in mind many of their most educated left in the 70s and 90s, so they are just starting to recover from an elongated brain-drain, on top of everything else.

          It will come either through an actually-benevolent government by luck, or through election by a better-educated population down the road. I hope to see that improvement before I am too old.

        • broken-kebab 5 minutes ago
          Which exact part of the state of affairs? Because if you point is that the current regime is propped by US assistance, it sounds fair, but would Egypt be a democracy if this military dictatorship disappears? If anything, revolution of 2011 suggests it's unlikely.

          Besides, your sources need to be updated as you seem to believe that Ukraine is within top 3 receivers of the US military aid, and it's definitely not true.

      • codeddesign 1 hour ago
        What are you talking about? This is literally every single major infrastructure project in the world. In the U.S. for example, every major waterway and roadway is built by the govt (local or federal). There is even the “Army Corp of Engineers”.

        You can dislike the project, but take your political beaf elsewhere. Your statements are irrational.

        • culi 1 hour ago
          Tbh I think your point is overstated but you do bring up an interesting point that affords me the opportunity to plug a really interesting relevant book called Standardizing Empire: The US Military, Korea, and the Origins of Military-Industrial Capitalism. It traces the origins of both global capitalism and the US military's involvement in massive infrastructure projects back to post-war South Korea. In the 50s, about 60-70% of all oceanic shipments were movement of goods to and from SE Asia by the US military. You can, arguably, thank this economic/infrastructure project for the standardized shipping container.

          https://bookshop.org/p/books/-/dd8603df55055d43

          Here's a good interview with the author:

          https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/new-books-network/patri...

    • netdur 3 hours ago
    • atonse 2 hours ago
      I'm curious as to why they aren't considering (solar powered) desalinization as an additional source of water, to pump water directly from the ocean?
      • rzwitserloot 1 hour ago
        Hear me out:

        There's a way the desert states can export and store their solar energy production cheaply, easily, at scale, without needing any rare earths (nothing that is hard to obtain / limited supply / is dirty to extract). And as part of the process, they get clean water as a side effect. Unlike e.g. export via electrolysing water and shipping the hydrogen gas which requires clean water and thus requires spending more energy on desalinization which is a dead end, literally: desalinisation is ecologically speaking terrible, and e.g. the persian gulf is already becoming saltier due to the many desal plants dumping their brine.

        How?

        Re-invent the Castner Process: An endlessly repeatable process.

        Step 1: Combine energy + Caustic Soda (NaOH); out comes Na2 (sodium metal, ready to export), H2O, and O2. The water is clean, the oxygen you gas off (not exactly an environmental disaster, gassing off waste oxygen), the process is essentially perfect - nothing is lost, and the anode and cathode use cheap materials (iron, mostly). Ship the sodium bars in a big boat (wrap em in some oiled up paper first. Yes, if the boat sinks, it'll explode; if an H2 carrying boat springs a leak you also get fireworks. Energy storage mechanics have nasty failure modes, it's pretty much inherent in the concept).

        Step 2: Once the sodium bars have arrived at some industrial port that wants energy, all they have to do is chuck a proverbial bucket of water at it; doesn't have to be particularly pure. The Na reacts, turning back into NaOH + H2 gas (useful feedstock gas! Don't ship it - ship the sodium, use the sodium to make H2 gas out of water at the site of the plant that needs hydrogen! If you don't need the hydrogen, burn it for energy) - and this reaction is highly exotermic on its own (let alone if you also burn the H2). Ship the NaOH back to the desert-based solar panels.

        A boat loaded soup to nuts with sodium metal is about as energy dense as half of the energy in a boat loaded to the gills with hypercooled, hypercompressed H2. Except you can ship this stuff on any old creaky vessel vs the extremely expensive H2 carriers.

        You can store the energy in any old warehouse, requiring pennies at best for safety - no need to store under pressure, nothing is particularly toxic, stuff lasts for years and doesn't lose appreciable amounts of energy during storage. Yes, if some catastrophe causes a flood to go through a warehouse full of sodium that's gonna be a nasty surprise, so preferably you don't build this stuff in the middle of town square, but it's orders of magnitude less scary than MIC, nuclear waste, a tank full of pressurized H2, and so on. This stuff is no more scary than an oil depot, really.

        So.. why in the blazes isn't this a thing? Shouldn't the middle east be spending their money on a modern take on the Castner Cell instead of The Line or a pet war in Yemen?

        Win win win. It can't even be patented. The only thing that needs to be done is to update/reinvent the castner cell: We haven't electrolysed caustic soda in about a century, because chlorine gas is a valuable feedstock for industry, and the Downs Cell (electrolysing salt into sodium + chlorine) is therefore the way it is done today. The sodium is a lucky byproduct (the process is run to fulfill the need for chlorine gas as feedstock). Due to this there's plenty of sodium to fulfil industrial needs and therefore no need to run Castner Cells. That's the only reason nobody's run one in many decades.

        I'm sure I'm missing some key chemistry but I can't figure this one out.

        • jaggirs 1 hour ago
          • robocat 29 minutes ago
            The commenter mentioned the same idea 2 years ago: https://hn.algolia.com/?query=Castner%20by%3Arzwitserloot&ty...

            The AI answer seems reasonable at a glance (similar to HN comments for things I'm ignorant about). Unfortunately using AI has become contentious and we don't yet have a polite way to check whether someone has taken the first step of validating their comment against the basic issues brought up by AI replies (similar to how some people prefer to ask than to Google it first).

            Edit: How should we apply AI to individual comments and moderation for a site (programmatically or UI before submit)?

        • lazide 1 hour ago
          Have you ever dealt with metallic sodium? You are dramatically underestimating how dangerous it is at scale. Hard no.
          • kristjansson 43 minutes ago
            I do love GP's excitement about the energy potential of violent exothermic reaction upon contact with water ... and the proposal mere sentences later to ship industrial quantities thereof on creaky old ships
            • selimthegrim 4 minutes ago
              Beirut would like a word about "any old warehouse"
      • cyberax 1 hour ago
        It's too expensive for agriculture.
    • bamboozled 24 minutes ago
      "Sounds like a great idea" -- Modern Humans
    • dyauspitr 1 hour ago
      Draining (or even using) the aquifer was never part of the plan. The goal has always been to have two streams of water come in from treated sewage/desal plants and the Nile itself. The problem being that the area they are trying to irrigate is higher than where they are pumping it from so they have something like 13 pump stations pumping the water uphill. Hopefully they figure it out and can eventually power the pump stations with solar+batteries so they don’t have to drain the aquifers. For alignment, the current status is dismal with almost all the water coming from just the aquifers.
    • alephnerd 3 hours ago
      > It's practically a project of the Egyptian military who will mostly own the land

      It's a public-private project with Gulf and Asian financing and execution.

      Sisi is a dictator, but he can and does execute. Look at how Egypt's developmental indicators have shot up over the past decade - that was not guaranteed, and he deftly took advantage of non-Western partners to push the reforms Egypt needs.

      • eddythompson80 2 hours ago
        Which developmental indicators are you referring to? Almost all economical numbers mean nothing if the country is a dictatorship because the admin can straight up fabricate all of them. Administrations in democracies have to manipulate the numbers, introduce new ones, etc while dictatorships can just say "Nah, make that number 20% higher". You can look at the EGP exchange rate over the last 10 years and tell me if that chart looks organic to you.
        • rayiner 1 hour ago
          That's not how it works. Egypt is not a closed country. International organizations can get in and get numbers.

          It's also worth keeping in mind that many European countries, and every non-European country that's now developed, went through a phase of authoritarianism or one-party rule during which the organs of state developed. Germany's and Italy's modern democratic governments date to the end of WWII, and Spain and Greece's date only to the 1970s. By contrast, efforts to jump straight to multi-party democracy have largely failed.

          • krior 1 hour ago
            Which european dictatorship left their country better off?
            • rayiner 1 hour ago
              "Better off" is too vague a criterion because it suggests some comparison with a counter-factual hypothetical. Instead, I think it's important to observe that the modern organs of state, rule of law, etc., were developed under (pre-constitutional) monarchs and dictators in most western European countries. For example in Germany, much of the bureaucracy was developed by the Prussians and the court system was developed under the Kaiser. Germany's 1949 Basic Law did not create a state from scratch, but instead largely subjected pre-existing institutions to democratic rule.
  • ojbyrne 2 hours ago
    This article has several passages repeated verbatim. Either bad AI or bad editing, not really a great advertisement for the product (“Brilliant”) it seems to be selling.

    Example: “The construction of the Aswan High Dam, completed in 1970, brought clear benefits. It provided a steady supply of hydroelectric power and allowed water to be regulated for year-round irrigation.” appears twice, word for word.

    • Fnoord 34 minutes ago
      I skimmed through the article. Several pictures are also repeated. Would this kind of thing happen before 2020? I don't think so.

      Either way, I got taught in high school geography that parts of rivers get rebuild all the time. The Maas (Meuse, as Dutch is my native language I say Maas) gets longer due to the corners getting more sharp (due to water and wind erosion). Then at some point, the water might actually go straight between two corners, leading to the part between the two corners (an extra 180 degrees of two corners, though might look like one) getting cut. Sometimes, that doesn't happen (quick enough) and humans need to help nature a bit. Because sometimes, the new part of river tends to reach villages or other parts of society humans want to preserve. So, we interfere. Near Maastricht, there's also a canal next to the Maas, and this can help with deficit or excess water in the Maas. But sometimes, even an extra part of river next to the old river is build. IIRC they do that because the erosion destroyed such parts, that the outcome of the erosion keeps coming back and back in too short amounts of time. So then, it makes more sense to look for a more long term solution.

      The water and wind erosion were interesting to me back in the days. So, from memory (and I surely am forgetting something here, possibly related to the chemistry of the water/earth), the way it works on low water level the wind on the corners erodes the corners, while on high water level the water pressurizes against the corner, leading to basins in the (wind eroded) corner which itself is part of the domino effect. In other words, it is bound to happen, given time. The river snaking around is bound to happen, and the breach is bound to happen as well. But the breach usually means the river goes to its original pathway (although temporarily).

      So for a large river as the Nile, it also comes as no surprise Egyptian government (Egypt being the country who benefit from the Nile delta) invests in the Nile. But the main problem the Nile faces is AFAIK related to drought which is related to climate. I'm not sure how they want to fix that.

  • RetroTechie 4 hours ago
    Wiki:

    "A feddan (Arabic: فدّان, romanized: faddān) is a unit of area used in Egypt, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and Oman. In Classical Arabic, the word means 'a yoke of oxen', implying the area of ground that could be tilled by oxen in a certain time. In Egypt, the feddan is the only non-metric unit which remained in use following the adoption of the metric system. A feddan is divided into 24 kirat (Arabic: قيراط, qīrāt), with one kirat equalling 175 square metres."

    So 2.2M feddan works out to 9240 km^2. That is: roughly same area as a square with 96 km sides.

    "Officials indicate the system will utilise roughly 10 million cubic metres of surface water daily alongside approximately 7.5 million cubic metres of treated drainage water per day, reflecting Egypt’s growing reliance on advanced water-recycling and smart-irrigation technologies amid mounting regional water pressures."

    Article isn't clear on where either component comes from. Not an amount you could divert from somewhere without huge environmental effects elsewhere.

    (Edit: quote is from the ME Observer article a commenter linked below. Original post seems to have more details)

    Anyway sounds like an ambitious project. And understandable given Egypt's population vs. resources pressures (esp. water).

    • legitster 3 hours ago
      A lot of where they are getting water from right now is an ancient underground aquifer - there's not a lot of water there though, so the plan was it was a stopgap while the water recycling plan comes online.

      Although the aquifer water plan itself is largely failing. The underground water was much more saline than they originally thought, so from space you can see lots of failed irrigation circles.

    • aidenn0 4 hours ago
      So similar origin to the Imperial acre; which it is very close in size to:

        You have: 175*24m^2
        You want: acre
         * 1.0378426
         / 0.96353724
    • yread 2 hours ago
      10 million cubic meters per day is roughly 100 cubic meters per second. Aswan discharges 2800 m3/s on average. So around 4% of the flow
  • nradov 1 hour ago
    The article makes a good point about food imports to Egypt. I think a lot of people don't realize that Egypt has been an innocent victim of Russia's invasion of Ukraine which disrupted wheat exports.

    Recent strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries are in turn disrupting Russian grain harvests due to shortages of diesel fuel. While this is a legitimate defensive tactic by Ukraine, as a side effect it's likely to cause further food price inflation in Egypt.

    • bamboozled 21 minutes ago
      Maybe the Egyptian government could pressure Putin to stop killing innocent people and sending young men to the front to needlessly die, how about that ?
      • nradov 6 minutes ago
        Sounds good, I hope they do. But as a practical matter Egypt is in a difficult spot because they import wheat from both Ukraine and Russia. And Egypt has no real leverage with Putin.
  • daedrdev 4 hours ago
    This is not the first project like this Egypt has tried. All have failed
    • a34729t 3 hours ago
      To be fair, Egypt and Mexico made major reforms to their water usage in the past and succeeded. Compared to India, which failed abjectly.
      • dyauspitr 1 hour ago
        India relies on groundwater and its strategy has been to use the monsoons to replenish the groundwater under the Jal Shakti Abhyan. The monsoons come like clockwork so it’s a solid strategy.
        • a34729t 38 minutes ago
          No, it is deeply stupid strategy, because groundwater is being depleted much faster than it can be replenished:

          "We reviewed 160 journal articles, along with supplementary data and reports from GW, agriculture, and meteorological authorities. Our focus was on GW depletion in India, with particular emphasis on GRACE satellite data, in situ observations, and the influence of hydrogeological conditions, anthropogenic activities, and climatic disturbances. GRACE observations reveal significant depletion, particularly in Eastern Uttar Pradesh at 7 cm/yr rate from 2002 to 2022, while localized in situ data highlight Punjab as the most rapidly depleting area, with a rate of 46 cm/yr (2003–2012)."*

          *https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S23528...

      • alephnerd 3 hours ago
        How did India's water usage reforms fail?

        I've been in Egypt and India - they aren't that different, and it's Indian companies that are working on and helping financing these megaprojects in Egypt via the credit line established after the pandemic [0] and it's Indian companies like Wabag that are implementing water treatment projects in Egypt [1].

        [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-12/egypt-say...

        [1] - https://www.arabnews.com/node/2130826/middle-east

        • a34729t 3 hours ago
          India uses something like a quarter of the world's groundwater. 20 years ago, it was all open channels, which lose 40-80% of water due to evaporation and seepage. Mexico and Egypt fixed this decades ago.

          Nowadays, farmers have shifted to directly using groundwater, and just pump as much water as possible from wells (thus depleting them). This is exacerbated by: 1) Relying on flood irrigation (ie just let water flow across the field and evaporate, vs drip) 2) As temperatures rise, using even more water

          The situation was already pretty dire, and despite various efforts, it's getting much worse.

          https://fse.fsi.stanford.edu/news/indian-groundwater-depleti...

        • vjvjvjvjghv 3 hours ago
          Do these Indian companies implement things in India?
          • dyauspitr 1 hour ago
            Yes, you may have to update your knowledge on the insane infrastructure boom going on in India right now.
          • alephnerd 3 hours ago
            Yes. And they're the same companies that were contracted and subcontracted infrastructure across the Khaleej and ASEAN.

            Larsen & Toubro, Wabag, SP Group, EIL, Afcons, and others tend to have a chokehold on implementing and executing these kinds of projects in MENA because they co-finance projects with Gulf capital players who tend to have capital stakes in these Indian players as well.

    • alephnerd 4 hours ago
      State and financial capacity is much stronger in Egypt today versus previous attempts.

      Egypt's developmental indicators have finally caught up to where the CEE was 5-10 years ago but with a better demographic profile, and Gulf and Asian capital and technology partners are much more hands-on.

      • cherryteastain 3 hours ago
        If you look at UNDP historical HDI data [1] you will see that Egypt barely caught up with the HDI levels of poorest Eastern European countries like Moldova from 10 years ago and is still well behind the HDI levels of better-off Eastern European countries like Czechia from 1990.

        [1] https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/in...

        • rayiner 43 minutes ago
          Yeah, Ottoman rule sucked.
          • selimthegrim 2 minutes ago
            Yugo wasn't doing so bad in 1990 before it imploded for other reasons (read: was "suicided")
        • alephnerd 3 hours ago
          And there was no guarantee that Egypt would have reached this point today in 2026.

          A decade ago, the safer bet would have been that Egypt would collapse just like it's then developmental peer Syria.

          The fact that Egypt is at this point today is a testament to the fact that it's has robust enough state capacity that it was able to execute on projects.

          > better-off Eastern European countries like Czechia from 1990

          Czechia is not Eastern Europe and was a very developed country. I'll wait for inglor_cz to eventually jump into this convo and give context around Czechoslovakia and Central Europe in the 1980s to 90s.

          • cherryteastain 2 hours ago
            Syria had an extremely destructive civil war and one of the worst collapses in living standards ever of any country (measured by however you want to look at it - HDI, GDP/capita...)

            Meanwhile Egypt was overtaken by Vietnam and performed similarly to peers like Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Algeria, Philippines.

            Egypt's and Sisi's performance is decidedly average.

            • alephnerd 1 hour ago
              And if you remember 2010-13 Egypt was also on the verge of collapsing into a civil war like Syria and Yemen yet didn't. That took a Herculean amount of effort.
  • betaby 1 hour ago
    With a such rapid demographic growth they have no choice. The population of Egypt doubled in last ~35 years. (quadrupled in the last ~60 years)
    • sajithdilshan 1 hour ago
      How is that even sustainable, like housing, education, electricity, running water, etc. how can they scale those with that fast growing population
      • BurningFrog 1 hour ago
        Typically, people produce about as much as they consume, so a growing population normally sustains itself.
      • lazide 1 hour ago
        Grow more crops, build more dams, etc?

        Until they are out of room anyway, but they have a lot of unused desert right now.

    • nradov 1 hour ago
      That's true for now, although their rate of population growth appears to have peaked several years ago and like most other countries the birth rate has since declined sharply.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Egypt

  • gl-prod 2 hours ago
    Egypt is trapped in mega projects death spiral
  • 2OEH8eoCRo0 35 minutes ago
    I don't believe it.
  • JumpCrisscross 5 hours ago
    Do we have a better source? This article contains repeating text which makes me suspect copy-pasted slop.

    EDIT: This [1] is better.

    [1] https://meobserver.org/nutrition/2026/05/18/egypts-new-delta...

    • kristjansson 5 hours ago
      I'd suspect it's a transcript of a video on his (excellent) YouTube[0], hence the repetition.

      [0]: https://www.youtube.com/@TheB1M

      • culi 4 hours ago
        It's a great channel if you don't care about any degree of technical debt and wanna see someone glaze over human rights violations in order to celebrate mega projects. I'd at least highly recommend the DeArrow extensions to de-clickbait this channel's titles.

        As much as I criticize the channel, I admit I can't look away

        • culi 51 minutes ago
          I meant depth* not debt. Too late to edit but to embarrassing to not address.
        • legitster 3 hours ago
          He quite often gets into problematic areas of many projects - see his series on Billionaires row in New York.

          There's just an exceeding amount of signal to noise ratio when it comes to big projects. Criticism of foreign projects comes out of the woodwork by non-local sources, and yet we seem to accept the human toll on Western projects like the Hoover Dam or the Channel Tunnel. Him taking a neutral tone and accepting source materials at face value is fair.

          Mega-projects have been a defining feature of human civilization since its inception, so there's ultimately not a way to cover them that is not either glamorizing or unbearably self-loathing.

          • JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago
            > we seem to accept the human toll on Western projects like the Hoover Dam or the Channel Tunnel

            The human toll of both is commonly brought up, including at the sites.

  • hparadiz 4 hours ago
    This could completely terraform the weather for the entire region. Possibly even increasing the amount of rain in the middle east overall.
    • HeyLaughingBoy 2 hours ago
      Aren't they already on Terra, or did I miss something?
  • ButlerianJihad 2 hours ago
    Egypt is also hard at work transforming the Sinai Plain and the vicinity of Mount Sinai itself, into a tourist magnet, and a thriving hotel/resort region. The monks of St. Katherine's monastery are nonplussed about these developments.

    (Many monasteries and convents in modern times are renowned, and/or an open secret, for their peaceful hospitality, and gladly welcome pilgrims and tourists for overnight stays, especially in places where the hotels are in short supply, and especially in places like Republic of Ireland, where the monasteries' populations are dwindling, and losing donors, while the tourist trade is stronger every day...)

  • andsoitis 5 hours ago